In all its facets, the run of residential will continue, and the boom in logistics will continue, while the bet will be the commercial recovery. These are the trends and challenges of the real estate sector in 2023, highlighted on the sidelines of the presentation of the 30th Forum “The future is now” that Scenari Immobiliari will organize in Santa Margherita Ligure on Sept. 16 and 17 at the Grand Hotel Miramare.
“The 2021-22 real estate market, barring the winds of war and all the fallout that these will bring in the short term, is extremely prosperous. Although, probably, the 2022 results, especially for residential, will not be as exaggerated as those of last year, which had been unexpected, because it was not just a rebound from 2020, but a significant increase over 2019, an excellent year for the Italian real estate sector.”
Francesca Zirnstein, managing director of Scenari Immobiliari, who – about the trends to be tended to – spoke of “a settling of offices, a sector that had some difficulties in 2021” and “a restart of the commercial market, a sector in which I believe a lot,” she said, “because I believe a lot in cities.
Asked about the trends and tendencies for the coming year, Paola Ricciardi, of Kroll Reag, said that “there are asset classes on which there is still much competition, particularly on logistics, where there remains an unbridled interest, partly related to the evolution of the sector in the last period and the growth of e-commerce. Another area, at this time of extreme interest, is residential housing in all its facets,” he went on to explain, pointing out that, in Italy, this area has been defined as ‘del living‘ (residence for rent) and includes a bit of all segment of a man’s life: starting with young people, with student housing, then continuing with social housing and the search for accommodation at subsidized prices, reaching multi-family and the possibility of having more flexible solutions than in the past, and finally arriving at senior housing. These are at the very least four segments that are ‘a of which’ of residential, but which have very defined specific characteristics that are still evolving in terms of product,” Ricciardi said, pointing out that there is a struggle in the market right now. The reason? There are a lot of interested operators, but real estate is not realized overnight; there are practical timeframes to be met; moreover, here we open up the whole parenthesis related to the fact that right now, the timing of realization and developments are somewhat slowed down by the inflationary phenomena of rising commodity costs. We are going through a slightly complicated situation, which applies to the development of real estate for sale and built-to-rent. From this point of view, however, new opportunities will open up for individuals and sgr.
The future is, therefore, in the city, “a city that must not be pitted against the ‘non-urban,’ but must be perceived as the place where ‘we grow as people, where we live and have opportunities to have relationships and to improve,'” explained Zirnstein. He pointed out that the whole real estate function, which is necessary to city life, is vital because it is a safety watchdog, a source of entertainment and movement for people, and a source of interest. “The commercial sector has seen a decline in transactions, but this occurred before Covid. We have seen an increase in the use of e-commerce much faster than the growth expectations that were there ( also because we had lower numbers in Italy than in other European countries. While we cannot catch up on past results, we will stabilize at a certain level. Stores will continue to play an important role.” The store is an excellent garrison; it is a highly relevant element,” explained the managing director of Scenari Immobiliari, who believes that if we all work well, we will see growth in the sector or, at least, its evolution.
Finally, among the issues to be considered as trends and challenges in 2023, Zirnstein spoke of “ecological transaction, the boom in technology applied to real estate and services, financial sustainability, accessibility of a social and economic kind,” as well as the issue of “connections and infrastructure, which will continue to be central.
