The Impact of Expensive Credit
The phenomenon of “more expensive credit” is casting a heavy shadow over the Italian real estate market, including Milan. Projections for 2023 anticipate a 29% decrease in mortgage volumes compared to the previous year, resulting in a corresponding 13% reduction in property transactions. These insights are drawn from the third report on the 2023 real estate market presented by Nomisma, offering an updated snapshot of the macroeconomic scenario and sector trends.
Trends in the Real Estate Sector
Examining medium-term evaluations, demographic factors play a pivotal role. The anticipated 2.5% decline in population by 2031 and a staggering 20% drop by 2070, particularly pronounced in the southern regions, underscores the shifting dynamics. Changes in family composition are also noteworthy, with an increasing number of single-person households surpassing couples with children for the first time. Looking ahead, it is predicted that by 2041, 38.8% of households will consist of individuals, while couples with children will decrease to 24.1%.
The Role of Credit in the Real Estate Market
Returning to the current economic context, the past year has witnessed an increased difficulty in accessing credit. The real estate market heavily relies on credit, more so than in the past, though the percentage remains lower compared to other European countries. Financial elements play a fundamental role in shaping industry dynamics, and recent times have seen a drastic reduction in purchase intentions. Additionally, a restrictive policy extends beyond credit access conditions, with few mortgage campaigns in progress, reflecting both high interest rates and a selective attitude limiting conversion possibilities.
The Contraction of Property Transactions
These challenges inevitably manifest in a reduction in property transactions, not just in the current year but extending into the biennium of 2023 and 2024. Recent statistics indicate that the proportion of mortgage-supported property transactions has dropped below 40%, down from over 50% previously. Nomisma’s CEO highlighted a projected contraction in property transactions to approximately 684,000 in 2023, with a further decline expected, albeit in line with 2019 data.
Property Prices and Rental Rates
The response of property values to the current climate has once again been marked by rigidity. In the second half of 2023, the semi-annual price variation ranged from a 1.3% decrease for well-maintained homes in Cagliari to a 1.3% increase in Milan. Across major Italian markets analyzed by Nomisma, well-maintained homes experienced a slight negative variation (-0.1% semi-annually), while the growth in prices for homes in good condition slowed (+0.5%).
Rising Rental Rates
A notable shift towards the rental market in the second half of the year resulted in a significant rise in rental rates (+2.1%). Specifically, individual cities such as Milan, Florence, and Turin witnessed increases ranging from 3-4%, while Bologna saw a remarkable 5% uptick.
Milan’s Real Estate Market
In alignment with the broader Italian real estate trends, Milan faced a substantial setback in the first half of 2023, with a 20% decline in residential property transactions, totaling only 12,490 compared to 15,600 in the same period of 2022. This deceleration in transactions partly influenced the performance of new and used property prices, showing continued but modest growth compared to the previous semester.
“In fact, in the second half of 2023, prices of new and renovated housing are experiencing a setback (-0.6 percent on a six-month basis), compared with an annual increase of +1.7 percent,” reads the Nomisma report, while used properties are performing positively (+1.3 percent and +3.3 percent of average six-month and annual prices, respectively).
On the rental side, rental demand is confirmed to be on the rise. In the second half of 2023, rents confirm the positive change of the last three semesters (+2.9% semi-annually), with an annual increase of 4.7%. As for the return on investment, the average gross rental yield was stationary at 4.8 percentage points.
