BTP and BOT, What are the Yields of the New September Issuances?

The new issuances of Italian government securities continue with increasingly enticing yields, including Bot, Btp Short, inflation-linked Btp (Btp€i), and medium-to-long-term Btp.

Market Update: Btp Yields Today

The effective yield of the ten-year bond has gained 42.7 basis points in the last month, reaching 4.679% on September 25th, the highest level since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, the spread with the German bund has risen to 187.64 basis points, the highest since last May. The increase in yields penalizes holders of already issued Btps, causing a decrease in their value, resulting in a loss if sold before maturity (however, the entire principal is refunded if the bond is held until maturity). For example, the Btp issued in June is currently (on September 25th) trading at 98.62, a decrease of 1.38% compared to its issuance value (100).”

Government Bond Issuances: What’s on the Schedule? 

The roadmap includes the start of the issuance of Btp Short with a two-year maturity and Btp€i (two tranches with 5 and 18 years of remaining duration) on Tuesday, September 26th. The deadline for submitting reservations is this Monday – you can also place requests through online banking enabled for trading, as well as at bank and postal branches. The amount issued, excluding additional auctions, will be up to a maximum of 4.75 billion euros.

There is time until Tuesday, September 26th, to reserve the purchase of the new Bot (Treasury Ordinary Bonds) with a 6-month maturity: up to 6.5 billion euros of this short-term security will be offered to the market. It’s especially suitable for managing liquidity, which is otherwise not very profitable in a regular bank account. At the time of publication, the annual yield of government bonds with a six-month maturity is 3.956%, a level not seen since 2011.

Btp and Ccteu: Three Tranches and a New Upcoming Issuance

For investors interested in medium and long-term, the Treasury plans to issue up to 9.5 billion euros of Btps and Ccteu on September 28th. The reservation period extends until September 27th.

A new five-year Btp issuance is on its way, offering an annual coupon of 4.1%. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) aims to increase this number to 5 billion euros (excluding the supplementary auction) from this new bond.

The third tranche of the ten-year Btp with ISIN IT0005560948, issued on September 1st, is coming back for issuance. As always for subsequent tranches, the coupon yield, in this case, set at 4.2%, will need to be related to the auction bidding price.

Following that, there are two issuances of Ccteu, one with a 3-year maturity and the other with a 7-year maturity. These are securities with variable interest rates, based on the six-month Euribor plus a spread of 0.5% and 0.75%, respectively. Ccteu is a relatively advantageous choice if there is an increase in the reference interest rates determined by the ECB. However, in this particular context, it does not appear to be the most likely scenario, as a decrease in inflation is expected in 2024, to which the ECB may respond by lowering the cost of money.