In 2024, bank fees on payment services will reach €9.5 billion, marking an increase of 2% compared to €9.3 billion in 2023. However, for the first time after years of sustained expansion, the future trajectory is flattening: based on the trend in the first nine months of the year, the expected increase for 2025 is less than 1%, signaling a structural slowdown rather than a cyclical one.

This change of pace is driven by stagnant consumption, growing competition from FinTech and BigTech, and a further tightening of the regulatory framework. As Andrea Gnetti, CEO of Excellence Payments, points out, “the slowdown is not cyclical, but structural,” highlighting a rapidly changing ecosystem.

Strong growth for cards, but transfers and current accounts are struggling

The research study The Challenges of the New Payments Ecosystem shows a two-speed dynamic. The payment card sector continues to be the only real driver of growth: with $2.6 billion in revenues in 2024, equal to 28% of the total, it records a CAGR of 14% in the period 2021-2024, thanks to a balanced contribution between credit cards and debit cards, both at $1.3 billion.

On the contrary, traditional components – current accounts and bank transfers – although representing the largest share of revenues, with 5.5 billion (57% of the total), show more modest growth, limited to a CAGR of 3%. The distribution of commission weight is also changing: in medium-sized banks, the incidence rises to 46%, while in larger institutions it falls to 31%, stabilizing at 30% among the main market leaders.

Value creation: who performs best and why

The ability to extract value from payment services varies significantly among the main institutions analyzed. In the 2024 ranking, Intesa Sanpaolo remains at the top with indicators of 0.86 on liquid assets, 17.94 per customer, and 0.76 per branch. Banco Desio excels in profitability relative to liquidity (1.23) and individual customers (33.66).

Particularly noteworthy is the growth of UniCredit, which increased its commissions by 13% year-on-year, bucking the market trend, and improved its indicators to 0.67 for liquidity and 15.84 per customer. This picture highlights how the value of payments increasingly depends on the monetization of customer relationships and the integration of transactional services into more complex engagement strategies.

Global competition is reshaping the role of banks

Competitive pressure is set to intensify. Global players such as Revolut, Klarna, Stripe, and Adyen are redefining the geography of the industry, eroding banks’ share of the customer journey. In this context, according to Gnetti, the opening of NFC on iPhones represents “an enabling factor for banks that want to develop proprietary wallets and regain control of the customer experience.”

The management of the payment experience thus becomes a strategic issue once again: losing this touchpoint means risking progressive disintermediation and a reduction in competitive relevance.

From the income model to the innovation paradigm

According to Maurizio Primanni, president of the Excellence Group, “the contribution of payment fees can no longer be taken for granted.” In a context characterized by squeezed margins and growing competition, banks must move from an income-based model to one based on innovation.

This involves developing value-added services, introducing vertical collection solutions for SMEs, and making smarter use of data to personalize the customer experience. Failure to address this area means losing the most frequent point of contact with businesses and households, leaving the field open to more agile competitors.

The implications for wealth management

For the world of wealth management, the slowdown in the payments business is a significant signal. A component that has guaranteed stable revenues for banks over the years is now showing less resilience, with potential indirect effects on capital allocation decisions, shareholder remuneration policies, and the ability of institutions to invest in new high-margin business lines, including advisory and asset management services.

At the same time, the growth of FinTech players and global payment infrastructures is opening up investment opportunities in rapidly evolving technological ecosystems. Despite the slowdown, the digitization of spending and saving behaviors continues to influence demand for financial products and reinforces the strategic value of transactional data in the development of personalized investment strategies.

A sector in transition, a new competitive landscape

The digital payments system is entering a more complex phase of maturity: growth is slowing, the competitive environment is expanding, and regulation is evolving. For operators capable of reinventing themselves, however, this phase represents an opportunity to recover margins, innovate service models, and strengthen customer relationships.

For wealth managers and asset managers, observing and interpreting these dynamics means anticipating the strategic orientations of banks, understanding the evolutionary potential of new technological infrastructures, and reading more deeply the impact that payments will have on the broader architecture of the financial ecosystem.