Initial data on the Swiss watch market in 2026
2026 is off to a slow start for the Swiss watch industry. According to data released by the FHS – Fédération de l’industrie horlogère suisse, January exports fell by 3.6% compared to the same month last year, reversing the moderate growth of +3.3% recorded in December and following the more pronounced decline of 7.3% observed in November. The two-year comparison, often more indicative during periods of calendar fluctuations, nevertheless shows near-stability at +0.3%, following -2.2% in December and -10.4% in November: a sign that, even in the absence of a true rebound, the decline of the past two years may have reached a point of equilibrium.
The weakening of the U.S. market remains the most evident factor. The United States, affected by the introduction of import tariffs, recorded a 14% decline in January, a sharp reversal from the +19.1% in December. The two-year trend has dropped to zero, following the +18% of the previous month. This is particularly significant given that the U.S. is one of the key markets for Swiss watches: the impact of tariffs is making the market more volatile, with a direct effect on demand for high-end models.
In Europe, the picture is more nuanced
Italy and Germany are showing a gradual improvement, with a reduction in the severity of the declines observed in 2025. Conversely, the United Kingdom and France are showing early signs of a slowdown after months of strong performance. This internal divergence suggests that European demand is undergoing a phase of normalization, but not uniformly.
The trend in Greater China, however, has been much more dynamic. After a weak 2025, January showed a return to vitality: Hong Kong returned to positive territory with a +2.6% increase, while mainland China recorded a +5% increase, breaking a streak of negative months. Despite this, the two-year reading remains strongly negative (–25.6% for mainland China), a sign that the recovery observed at the start of the year, while significant, still occurs within a context of structurally weaker demand compared to pre-crisis levels. The region’s overall improvement, which reached +4% for the month, remains one of the most encouraging elements of the global picture.
Other Asian markets show divergent trends. Japan slows down on a monthly basis but accelerates on a two-year basis, while Singapore records a more pronounced slowdown that interrupts the strong growth seen at the end of 2025.
The most luxurious brands
One of the month’s most significant trends emerges when looking at price segments. The top segment—watches priced above 3,000 Swiss francs—which alone accounts for about three-quarters of the total value and includes brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, and IWC—saw an 8.1% decline, underscoring the cooling of high-end demand. In contrast, the mid-range segment (500–3,000 CHF) is growing strongly, posting a +17.7% increase that signals a revival among mid-premium consumers. The lower price brackets show more moderate dynamics, with weak or slowing growth.
Overall, the Swiss watch industry enters 2026 facing a heterogeneous and complex landscape: the United States remains the main point of vulnerability, Europe is proceeding in a disjointed manner, while Greater China is finally showing signs of recovery after difficult months. The polarization of demand between a slowing high-end segment and an accelerating mid-range segment can be interpreted as an indicator of global consumer sentiment, with consumers now being more selective in the full-luxury segments and more active in the mid-range segments.
The Swiss watch market slows down in early 2026, amid U.S. tariffs and mixed signals from Asia
