The main trends in the art market in 2026
As is well known, 2025 was a year clearly divided into two parts as far as the art market was concerned: the first half was stagnant, in line with the trend in 2023-2024: in New York, Sotheby’s and Christie’s spring sales were down by around 21% compared to 2024 for modern and contemporary art, despite high sales rates (90% of lots sold on average). The second half, on the other hand, saw a robust and (perhaps) unexpected recovery, benefiting from a real return of confidence, with Frieze London (90,000 visitors) and Art Basel Paris (73,000 visitors) giving the market a boost.
In Paris, the fair recorded remarkable sales, particularly for Abstraktes Bild (1987) by Gerhard Richter, which sold for around $23 million (detail in opening image). “This momentum continued in New York in November, where auction houses offered sales of exceptional collections,” comments Arnaud Dubois, chief investment officer and co-founder of art investment company Matis. During the month, Sotheby’s exceeded $1 billion in total sales for the season, while Christie’s reached nearly $970 million. “Here again, the consistency of the offering and its focus on iconic 20th-century artists played a decisive role: 94% of lots found buyers on average at the two auction houses.”
Matis’ analysis (and advice) on the 2025-2026 art market
Dubois comments that, in general, transactions in 2025 were promising, “with a good level of activity on recent contemporary works and a sustained pace of sales. The top-end segment, on the other hand, saw a less expansive trend than in the 2021-2022 period. For works above $10 million, interest remains selective; at the market level, very high-end sales declined sharply in 2024, and this continued to affect the fall 2025 season.”
In an evolving economic context, the expert continues, art continues to attract investors and collectors due to its tangible and international dimension, as well as its ability to serve as a store of value, even in times of market tension and volatility. “According to the Deloitte Art & Finance 2025 report, art and collectibles accounted for $2.174 trillion of privately held assets in 2022, then $2.564 trillion in 2024, an increase of 18% in two years.”
But which investments should be favored? “20th-century works remain the most dynamic segment. The Art Basel & UBS 2025 report shows that in 2024 they accounted for 52% of the value of global auction sales.” Among these, “the value is particularly concentrated on works by iconic artists, present in major museums, regularly sold at auction, and sought after by collectors.” It should be noted that “works valued at over $250,000 accounted for 1% of lots sold at auction in 2024, but accounted for 67% of the value of sales.”
To be monitored
As for the main trends to monitor in the art market for 2026, there has been a significant decline in works valued at over $10 million. However, ultra-wealthy collectors remain interested in museum-quality pieces with impeccable provenance. The segment between $500,000 and $5 million continues to flourish, as it “shows greater market stability.” In fact, Dubois continues, these works “often have a good history of exhibitions and collections, combining potential for revaluation and sustained liquidity.” They also benefit from “renewed interest from private and institutional collectors seeking to reposition themselves in tangible assets with moderate risk.”
Finally, red chips, i.e., works by ultra-contemporary and emerging artists (those born in 1975 or later) are slowing down: after several years of strong growth, they are undergoing a marked correction. Prices and resale value are falling, with collectors more cautious about a segment considered unstable, sometimes disconnected from the intrinsic quality of the works, whose prices are influenced by fashions and speculative demand. Blue chip art, on the other hand, is based on decades of critical and museum recognition, and is therefore considered a more solid investment.
