The Ministry of Economy and Finance has announced the second retail issue of BTPs in 2025: it is a return to BTP Valore, but with a seven-year maturity and a “double” step-up. The expected yield
The policy for placing Italian public debt with households returns to the old BTP Valore formula, updating the duration and structure of the coupons. The fifth issue, which abandons the BTP Più model, will take place from Monday 20 October to Friday 24 October (until 1 p.m.), barring early closures.
Will the fifth issue of BTP Valore be profitable? To answer this question with certainty, we will have to wait until 17 October, when the Ministry of Economy and Finance will announce the minimum guaranteed coupons.
However, some key features have already been disclosed.
BTP Valore October 2025: features
First of all, the duration has changed to seven years. This is longer than the six years of the last BTP Valore issue, which raised around €11 billion, but shorter than the eight years of the BTP Più offered to the market last February with different characteristics.
The mechanism that distinguishes BTP Valore continues to be the step-up coupon: a mechanism in which fixed coupons increase in a programmed manner over the life of the security. In this case, the brackets will no longer be divided into two phases (3+3), but into three: a first coupon, distributed on a quarterly basis, for the first three years; a second, higher level between the fourth and fifth years; and finally, an even higher coupon between the sixth and seventh years.
Those who subscribe to the issue and hold the BTP Valore until maturity will be offered a final loyalty bonus (one-off) of 0.8% – the same bonus adopted for the previous BTP Valore issue.
Compared to the BTP Più, which aimed at exit flexibility without risking capital after four years, the BTP Valore scheme rewards investors with a slightly higher overall return than the market.
BTP Valore October 2025: yield forecasts
If the BTP Valore were issued today, the benchmark to be exceeded would be that of the normal seven-year BTP, which yields 3.03% as of 13 October (down from 3.127% gross per annum on 19 September, the date on which the issue was announced). As a rough guide, the premium offered on the market yield of equal duration in previous BTP Valore issues was around 0.15-0.20% higher. This would be a total yield of approximately 3.15% – 3.20%, to be modulated on three increasing levels according to the “step up” scheme (which tends to be tempting, because the yield in the last two years will be higher than the overall yield). Net of 12.5% tax, this simulation would bring the new BTP Valore to an average annual yield of 2.8% over seven years, including the loyalty bonus.
Compared to our previous simulations, we have therefore revised our forecast downwards in light of the decline in market yields on seven-year maturities.
As always, the minimum investment will be €1,000 or multiples thereof, with no limits on requests and the certainty of always being able to purchase the desired amount. To reserve your purchase, you can use your home banking service, if it is enabled for securities account functions, or go to a bank or post office branch, if you have a current account.
As with all white-listed government bonds, taxation is reduced to 12.5% and investments up to €50,000 are excluded from the ISEE calculation.
BTP Valore, the fifth issue compared with the others
The new BTP Valore issue will stand out for its longer duration, for the first time at 7 years, with three levels of coupon increases.
