{"id":139077,"date":"2026-02-17T11:06:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T10:06:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.we-wealth.com\/?post_type=news&p=139077"},"modified":"2026-02-17T11:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T10:06:28","slug":"where-will-capital-go-in-2026-rotation-between-the-us-europe-and-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.we-wealth.com\/en\/news\/where-will-capital-go-in-2026-rotation-between-the-us-europe-and-emerging-markets","title":{"rendered":"Where will capital go in 2026? Rotation between the US, Europe, and emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

How portfolios are being repositioned, the new barbell strategy of professionals<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In fund manager parlance, the barbell<\/strong> is a \u201cbalanced\u201d asset allocation strategy: it concentrates capital on two poles, one more exposed to growth<\/strong> and one more oriented towards quality<\/strong> and resilience, avoiding overloading the \u201cmiddle ground\u201d which often suffers when the cycle changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026<\/strong>, this logic returns to center stage because portfolios must remain invested, but with less margin for error: the consensus is more optimistic and, at the same time, protection seems lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Bofa<\/strong> Fund Manager Survey<\/strong>, cited by Bloomberg<\/strong>, managers are among the most bullish in recent years, with cash<\/strong> at a record low and 48%<\/strong> overweight equity<\/strong>, in a context where hedging against corrections appears reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First shock: falling dollar and return of \u201cbeyond the US\u201d diversification<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In January 2026, emerging markets<\/strong> are rebounding strongly, driven by a weaker dollar<\/strong> and a rotation that looks more like deconcentration than a flight from the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Financial Times<\/strong> reports that the MSCI<\/strong> Emerging Markets Index rose by almost 11%<\/strong> in January alone, adding around $1 trillion<\/strong> in market capitalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most \u201cinstitutional\u201d signal is in fixed income: $1.5 billion flowed into local currency debt funds in one week, the highest since 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe: money coming out of parking and returning to equity, mainly via ETFs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the Lseg Lipper<\/strong> report published on January 27, 2026<\/strong> (December flows), total flows to funds and ETFs<\/strong> in Europe were +42.16 billion<\/strong> euros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data that changes the tone is that equity<\/strong> returns as the top asset class with +26.52 billion<\/strong>, of which +21.8 billion<\/strong> via ETFs<\/strong>. At the same time, the largest redemptions came from euro money markets, with -\u20ac17.21 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a reallocation from cash<\/strong> to liquid risk, rather than an indiscriminate \u201call-in on stocks\u201d approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rotation is not \u201cjust tech\u201d: financials, value, and broader leadership<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Within this return, the interesting part is less monocentric leadership. In the Lseg Lipper<\/strong> report, analyst Dewi John<\/strong> writes: \u201cmarket leadership broadened beyond US mega-cap technology<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same analysis points to relative traction in financials<\/strong>, value<\/strong>, and international equities<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the more tactical side, according to a report by Goldman Sachs, in the week ending January 15, 2026, hedge funds recorded the largest net buying in industrials<\/strong> in over ten years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same passage indicates that hedge funds were overweight in industrials<\/strong> by 5.1%<\/strong> compared to benchmarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The infrastructure of reallocation: the era of ETFs as a fast track<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here, it is not only \u201cwhat\u201d that matters, but also \u201chow.\u201d At the end of 2025, ETFs domiciled in Europe show a structural boost: Vanguard reports that in 2025, net flows reached a record $372 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The industry picture is consistent: ETFGI reports $396.84 billion in net inflows in 2025 for ETFs in Europe and assets of $3.22 trillion at the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For private investors and advisors, this means one simple thing: reallocation is increasingly shifting towards instruments that allow for speed, transparency, and control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the barbell is becoming credible again<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, the flow map tells the story of a professional barbell<\/strong>: one leg on growth<\/strong> and innovation<\/strong> (often still the US<\/strong>, due to market depth), one leg on quality<\/strong> and European rotation, and more conscious management of concentration and currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point is not to \u201cchange horses,\u201d but to reduce dependence on a single horse. In the Global Investment Outlook 2026<\/strong>, Vincent Mortier<\/strong>, Group CIO<\/strong> of Amundi<\/strong>, sums it up as follows: \u201cDiversification remains the most effective defense in a world of concentrated stock markets and high valuations<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herein lies the critical note: a barbell<\/strong> only works if it does not become an alibi. If the consensus remains bullish and under-hedged, the defensive leg risks becoming crowded just when it is really needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bridge to private markets: in 2026, the keyword is liquidity, and secondaries become the base layer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For family offices, private bankers, and wealth managers, 2026 is not the year when \u201cprivate is loved the most.\u201d It is the year when private is expected to be governable within an overall plan, especially on the cash flow side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its 2026 outlook, Cambridge Associates<\/strong> writes that secondaries<\/strong> can become a \u201cbase layer<\/em>\u201d in private markets<\/strong> portfolios, precisely to manage volatility and cash flow uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same source notes that secondary activity is still \u201cless than 5%<\/em>\u201d of total private markets<\/strong> activity, so there is potential for growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For wealth management, the message is clear: less \u201creturn premium\u201d in words, more measurable architecture made up of pacing, vintage, liquidity management, and rebalancing options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the consensus is bullish, caution is a strategy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The data justifying reallocation, with cash declining and a return to equity, also increases the risk of overly similar portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If protection is low, a change in tone on macro, geopolitics, or currency is enough to make the lack of diversification costly. This is where the advisor’s work makes a difference: not predicting the shock, but building a portfolio in which the shock is sustainable, and in which public and private markets<\/strong> dialogue without hurting each other.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Flows and positioning reshape asset allocation 2026: Bofa reports 48% overweight equity and cash at lows, MSCI EM +11% in January and $1.5 billion on local EM debt. In Europe, equity +\u20ac26.52 billion driven by ETFs +\u20ac21.8 billion, while money markets lose \u20ac17.21 billion. In private markets, secondaries become the \u201cbase layer\u201d for managing liquidity and cash flow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":85135,"featured_media":139086,"template":"","categories":[3738],"tags":[4071,3630,4001,4086],"collana-video":[],"class_list":["post-139077","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-asset-allocation","tag-etf-en","tag-europe","tag-usa"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhere will capital go in 2026? 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