{"id":136029,"date":"2025-12-12T15:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.we-wealth.com\/?post_type=news&#038;p=136029"},"modified":"2025-12-24T15:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T14:37:50","slug":"bonds-and-diversification-why-the-geographical-map-is-no-longer-enough","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.we-wealth.com\/en\/news\/bonds-and-diversification-why-the-geographical-map-is-no-longer-enough","title":{"rendered":"Bonds and diversification: why the geographical map is no longer enough"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The recent analysis by <strong>Andreas M\u00fctter<\/strong>, quantitative analyst at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.we-wealth.com\/enterprise\/vontobel-am\"><strong><u>Vontobel Institutional Clients<\/u><\/strong><\/a>, is clear: geographical diversification to reflect differentiated interest rate movements is increasingly becoming a mirage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current economic environment is apparently characterized by deglobalization and monetary policy cycles driven by individual countries&#8217; economies, but in practice, interest rates in developed markets have moved more or less uniformly, with only emerging markets offering a little more breathing room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The paradox: the end of geographic diversification in the context of deglobalization<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by <strong>geopolitical fragmentation and deglobalization<\/strong>, would suggest a parallel divergence in interest rate movements and monetary policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This theoretical assumption has not been borne out in practice: over the last decade, and especially since the end of the zero interest rate era, bond yields have moved almost in unison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why is this happening? Because we now live in such a globalized world that inflation cycles and central bank reactions are synchronized. If inflation rises due to an energy shock, it affects almost everyone at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This raises two practical questions for investors: why are correlations so high, and what should they do about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Analysis through diversification measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00fctter&#8217;s study highlights the degree of diversification using two measurement tools:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Through <strong>dimensionality<\/strong>, it is possible to detect how much diversification to expect in the interest rate market. Dimensionality can be as high as n, indicating perfect diversification, and as low as 1, corresponding to no diversification potential. Examining this number helps us understand whether interest rate markets are driven by a few or multiple underlying forces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Clustering<\/strong>, on the other hand, provides us with a map of dependencies, i.e., which markets move closer to each other and which can add greater diversification.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The result<\/strong> is that the dimensionality for core developed markets (a sample consisting of Germany, the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Japan) is very low, with a score of 1.5. Even when other developed countries and emerging countries are added, there is no dramatic increase in dimensionality, and it always falls in times of stress and in the period following the era of zero interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Forex (FX) vs Bonds: where the real variety lies<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The analysis highlights an interesting paradox. If we look at the foreign exchange market (<strong>Forex<\/strong>), diversification is much higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just three currency pairs (dollar\/euro, pound\/euro, yen\/euro) offer much more diversification than many different bond markets combined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is because the exchange rate is <strong>relative<\/strong> in nature (the value of one currency against another), while interest rates tend to become <strong>absolute<\/strong> in times of financial stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The solution: diversify \u201cmodels,\u201d not \u201cmaps\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If buying bonds from multiple countries is no longer a guarantee of diversification, what should an investor do? The analysis suggests a radical paradigm shift: true security no longer lies in \u201ctraveling\u201d (buying different countries), but in \u201cchanging the way we think\u201d (using different investment rules):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Carry:<\/strong> look for bonds that offer the highest coupon yields;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Value:<\/strong> look for bonds that are \u201cundervalued\u201d relative to the country&#8217;s economic fundamentals;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Momentum:<\/strong> follow the trend, buying what goes up and selling what goes down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of focusing on geography, focusing on <strong>quantitative investment models<\/strong> could lead to greater diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By using these different models simultaneously, you can achieve more stable and less correlated returns, protecting your portfolio much better than simply adding another country to your investment map.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is spreading your money across different geographical regions synonymous with a diversified portfolio? In theory, if monetary policies were to move in different directions, focusing on different areas would lead to an advantage in terms of diversification. But according to a recent quantitative analysis, geographical diversification based on monetary policies is not a guarantee.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":85135,"featured_media":136030,"template":"","categories":[3738],"tags":[],"collana-video":[],"class_list":["post-136029","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bonds and diversification: why the geographical map is no longer enough | WeWealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is spreading your money across different geographical regions synonymous with a diversified portfolio? 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